Three weeks out from the finals, several clubs are already looking towards 2022. A handful are still trying to get into the Top 8, while five, maybe six, have a shot at winning the Grand Final.
So, as another season comes towards the finals, it is time to ask each club, where is your next premiership coming from?
MELBOURNE
Last Win: 2020
I don’t think Melbourne fans have too much to worry about. The transition from the Slater-Cronk-Smith era to the Papenhuyzen-Munster-Grant era was seamless. Craig Bellamy is the greatest coach of his generation, if not the greatest of all time. On the cusp of equalling the 1975 record of 19 wins a row, the Storm are favourites to win the premiership again in 2021.
SYDNEY ROOSTERS
Last Win: 2019
2021 has been a wretched season for the Sydney Roosters when it comes to injury. Club captains Boyd Cordner and Jake Friend have been forced into retirement, as has veteran winger Brett Morris. The upside is they have unearthed a future superstar halfback in Sam Williams, and they are still a very big chance of making the Top 4 this year. Three time premiership winning coach Trent Robinson isn’t going anywhere. The Roosters will rebuild and still have a shot at the title over the next few seasons.
CRONULLA
Last Win: 2016
It’s just five years since Cronulla shocked Melbourne to win the 2016 Grand Final. Yet the Sharks have been happy enough to qualify for the finals without getting much further ever since. They have a succession of coaches - Flanagan, Morris, Hannay - and in 2022 will have Craig Fitzgibbon in the role in his first major gig. They have some great young forwards coming through, but the halves have been an issue. Matt Moylan has struggled with injury, and Shaun Johnson and Chad Townsend have moved on. Who will guide them around the park in 2022? It took the Sharks 50 years to win their first - I think it will be at least another ten before they win a second.
NORTH QUEENSLAND
Last Win: 2015
The Cowboys’ extra time victory over Brisbane in 2015 earned the club their first and only premiership. Since then, Johnathan Thurston has retired, and the club has slumped towards the bottom of the ladder. Their recruitment has been ordinary at best in that time, although in their defence it is hard to replace solid experienced forwards such as Matt Scott and Gavin Cooper. Without better recruitment, they are at least ten years away from another title.
SOUTHS
Last Win: 2014
I tipped Souths to beat Melbourne in the 2021 Grand Final. It still may happen, although Melbourne seem unstoppable right now. The Bunnies have set a competition record with eight games in a row scoring 30+ points, but their defence is still an issue. This year really is their window though. Adam Reynolds has been inexplicably let go, and Wayne Bennett is moving on. Jason Demetriou may take a couple of years to ease into the head coaching role, and his main task in 2022 will be getting the best out of Anthony Milford. If the Rabbitohs are smart, they will keep Benji Marshall for another year as a backup before easing the young halves into the top grade alongside Cody Walker. If not this year, I still see Souths potentially winning the title in the next three years.
MANLY
Last Win: 2011
Apart from the debacle of the Northern Eagles era, Manly have never gone ten years without winning a premiership since they won their first in 1972. They are a chance this year, but realistically, they are a step behind Melbourne and Souths, and maybe Penrith. However, the long term signings of the Trbojevic brothers and Daly Cherry-Evans coupled with Des Hasler’s mentorship of unsung players such as Morgan Harper, Brad Parker, Taniela Paseka etc could see the Sea Eagles challenging for the next few years at least.
ST GEORGE-ILLAWARRA
Last Win: 2010
The Dragons haven’t been a serious contender for the title since Wayne Bennett packed his bags for Newcastle a decade ago. Current coach Anthony Griffin has a good record of getting teams to the finals, but no further, This year he probably won’t even do that with the Dragons, although BBQ-Gate certainly didn’t help. Ben Hunt needs some help to steer this team around. Looking at their roster, a title seems years away. They had to wait 31 years before beating the Roosters in the 2010 Grand Final. They’re already up to 11, but surely they won’t have to wait another twenty. Maybe ten though.
BRISBANE
Last Win: 2006
Remember when Brisbane was the gold standard? That seems so long ago now. Previous coaches and administrations purged the club of experienced players, and Kevin Walters has been brought in to fix the mess. Walters has made a good start, getting rid of a couple of players who don’t fit his image of where the club should be. Adam Reynolds should be the signing of the year for 2022. I expect the Broncos to bounce back and be challenging within the next three or four years.
WESTS TIGERS
Last Win: 2005
The Tigers have been their own worst enemy for years now. A revolving door of coaches and paying overs for players that haven’t delivered has contributed to their failure to make the finals for a decade. Michael Maguire has been brought in to stop the rot, but the club still struggles to attract players. By 2023 they should have some room to move in the salary cap to add players in key positions. The Tigers have some great youngsters coming through suck as Jock Madden and Jake Simpkins. They will need some help though from experienced players. If they stick with Maguire they could be a top contender within five years. If they continue the coaching merry-go-round….well Balmain won in 1969 and Wests won in 1952.
CANTERBURY
Last Win: 2004
This was supposed to be the year that Canterbury improved on their dismal performances of recent years. Instead they have gone backwards. I can’t think of one player that has gone to the Bulldogs this year who has emerged as a better player. It makes me fear for the futures of Matt Burton and Brent Naden. They do get Josh Addo-Carr though, who should be immune from going backwards. It will be interesting to see how Nick Meaney goes at Melbourne in comparison though. Canterbury do have the advantage of Phil Gould joining the club as an overseer, but I have seen nothing this year that suggests Canterbury could win the competition at any time soon. Which is sad - they should be top eight contenders every year.
PENRITH
Last Win: 2003
After making the Grand Final in 2020 on the back on a massive undefeated streak, Penrith went into 2021 as one of the favourites. They still retain that status, but have slipped a bit behind Melbourne, with Souths creeping up. The window may be closing. They are losing a few of their fringe players such as Burton and Naden next year, but retain the bulk of their squad. I can’t see them beating Melbourne this year, but they should be thereabouts for a couple of years at least.
NEWCASTLE
Last Win: 2001
The Knights suffered an injury toll earlier in the year worse than most teams, yet still find themselves in the mix for the Top 8. If they can keep Pearce, Ponga and Best healthy, and retain the Saifiti brothers in the front row, Newcastle could become a premiership force within a couple of years. I’m not sure how they match it with Melbourne or Souths in attack. They need another game-breaker to assist Ponga. If they can snare one, they could challenge within the next couple of seasons.
CANBERRA
Last Win: 1994
Canberra made the Grand Final in 2019, and were an overturned six again ruling from perhaps snaring their first title in 25 years. Alas, it wasn’t to be, and the Raiders have struggled to get back to the main stage. They have a great roster and a proven coach, yet the window could be closing. I predicted they would regret letting Aiden Sezer go in favour of George Williams, and here we are. If Canberra can jag a top halfback they could still be a threat in the next couple of years. If not, the 2020s could be as lean as the 2000s and the 2010s.
PARRAMATTA
Last Win: 1986
Souths went 43 years without a premiership win and that was big news in the rugby league community. Parramatta are now, at 35 years, closing in on that. They have been in and around the finals for several seasons since their last Grand Final win, but haven’t ever been able to break through. Their capitulation over the last few weeks has seen the club surrender yet another chance for premiership glory. They have been waiting for the next Peter Sterling since the great halfback retired in 1992. Gary Freeman, Chris Sandow, Tim Smith and Mitch Moses have all had their moments, but none could ever be Sterling. I honestly don’t see where the next premiership from the Eels is coming from. It could be another 35 years.
GOLD COAST
Last Win: Never
Gold Coast is the region where sporting franchises go to die. The ARL tried with the Seagulls/Giants/Chargers for a decade, and they made an extended finals series once. The Titans haven’t really been considered a threat since they entered the competition in 2007, and there has been talk of relocating the club in recent times. They recruit well, but tend to pay overs for players that can never deliver the club a premiership. If they win a premiership in the next 20 years I will be astonished. I’ll be even more astonished if they’re around in 20 years.
NZ WARRIORS
Last Win: Never
27 seasons with a whole country at their disposal and only two Grand Finals to show for it. The Warriors have been a disaster, yet the promise for an elusive title is still there. They have shown great tenacity to still be a chance of making the 2021 finals despite not being able to play at home for two years. There is a very real chance that COVID could kill the Warriors as the NRL looks for a second team in Brisbane. I hope not. But I wouldn’t be backing them to win a premiership any time in the next ten years,
So what does this all tell us? We sit around each year to see who Melbourne play in the Grand Final? Well, yeah, maybe. Maybe for the next five years at least. Souths are losing their Super Coach, the Roosters are in the dreaded rebuilding phase, Parramatta continue to fade in August. That leaves Penrith and Manly as true competitors. Hopefully some of the other teams focus on coaching appointment and recruitment in the next few years in order to challenge those top teams. The last thing the NRL needs is for its competition to be like the EPL where its always Manchester City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester United or Chelsea. The NRL needs a Leicester City. I’ll be fascinated to see which club takes that role.
Let me know what you think. Comment below