So, we’re finally in NRL Grand Final Week. South Sydney VS Penrith.
Since the great St George team of 1956-1966, only Parramatta in 1981-1983 has won three consecutive premierships. With the salary cap, rule changes, and intense media pressure, Grand Finals are incredibly hard to win. They say you have to lose one to win one.
Let’s examine that for a minute or two.
After Souths won four Grand Final in five years between 1967-1971, Manly defeated Easts in the 1972 decider. Manly had lost to Souths in 1968 and 1970. The Roosters dusted themselves off, and won the Grand Final in 1974 and 1975,.
Easts famously belted St George 38-0 in the 1975 Grand Final, despite only being ahead 5-0 at half time. The Dragons bounced back to win in 1977, defeating Parramatta, who had also lost the 1976 Grand Final against Manly. The Dragons won again in 1979, defeating Canterbury 17-13.
After a brave run to the 1979 Grand Final, Canterbury defeated Easts in the 1980 decider. The following year, Parramatta broke through for their first Grand Final win, with a handful of players from their 1977 loss, including Ray Price, Mick Cronin and Ron Hilditch.
Manly went down to the Eels in 1982 and 1983, yet defeated Canberra in 1987. Their team included Paul Vautin and Noel Cleal, both members of the 1983 loss. Canberra themselves won in 1989, and again in 1990, defeating Penrith. The Panthers famously reversed the result in the 1991 Grand Final, winning the premiership for the first time.
Brisbane bucked the trend in 1992, defeating St George in the Grand Final. But in 1995, Canterbury defeated Manly, a year after losing the Grand Final to Canberra. In 1996, Manly bounced back and defeated St George.
In the post Super League era, the trend is not quite as solid. Melbourne won at their first attempt in 1999, and Newcastle won their second title in 2001. Sydney Roosters’ 2002 Grand Final triumph came after a loss to Brisbane in 2000, but Penrith, Canterbury, Wests Tigers and Brisbane won in the next four years with no recent Grand Final history.
The Melbourne-Manly feud was a return to the 1990s in a way. Melbourne, having lost to Brisbane in the 2006 Grand Final, belted Manly in 2007. The following year, the Sea Eagles returned the favour with an emphatic 40-0 victory. Melbourne won again in 2009 and 2012.
After 2012, the trend falls away somewhat. Wins for Sydney Roosters in 2013, Souths in 2014, North Queensland in 2015, and Cronulla in 2016 almost put the theory to bed. This is especially so considering Souths in 2014 had not been in a Grand Final since 1971, and Cronulla’s win in 2016 was their first Grand Final appearance since 1978 (outside of the 1997 Super League). The Cowboys one and only appearance in the decider before their 2015 triumph was the 2005 loss to Wests Tigers.
Melbourne have since made making the Grand Final an art form. They recovered from their loss to Cronulla in 2016 to smash the Cowboys in 2017, before going down to the Sydney Roosters in 2018. In 2020, they defeated Penrith, but have yet to win the Grand Final in consecutive years.
Which bring us back to this year’s Grand Final, Penrith lost to Melbourne in 2020. If this was the period between 1970 and 1996, one would think the experience of the loss would be enough for them to triumph this year. Yet teams have come from nowhere to win the Grand Final in the 2000s. South Sydney have just three survivors from that 2014 team - Adam Reynolds, Tom Burgess and Alex Johnston. Yet they also have 2005 Grand Final winner Benji Marshall in their squad.
So, how much does Grand Final experience count for these days?
We’re going to find out this Sunday.
Who will win the Grand Final? Feel free to comment below.