With just six rounds to go before the finals, it’s time to have a look at each club’s performance and prospects.
PENRITH
1st. 12 wins 1 draw 1 loss 25 points
What’s gone right?
The rise of the next generation. Brent Naden, Stephen Crichton, Jerome Luai, Viliame Kikau, Caleb Aekins and Brian To’o have all developed into top quality first graders early in their career. James Tamou has a new lease of life, and James Fisher-Harris and Isaah Yeo are in the best form of their career. The Panthers are also helped by Nathan Cleary being free to guide this team around the park. It is definitely Cleary’s team now.
What’s gone wrong?
If there is a downside, it is that some of the players coming through may need to find a new home to play regular first grade. Mitch Kenny and Matt Burton would both be a loss.
What’s next?
Penrith will almost certainly finish in the top four, which is already probably an over-achievement. It will be interesting to see how the young players to react to the pressure of finals football against seasoned teams such as Melbourne and the Sydney Roosters.
MELBOURNE
2nd. 12 wins 2 losses 24 points
What’s gone right?
Craig Bellamy continues to get the best out of whoever is in the thirteen each week. Josh Addo-Carr and Suliasi Vunivalu are still the strike weapons they’ve always been, despite both probably leaving at the end of the year. Cameron Smith is as good as ever, and Ryan Papenhuyzen has been a revelation at fullback.
What’s gone wrong?
Injuries to Cameron Munster and Cameron Smith may have an impact when Melbourne play the other top teams. They will be sweating on them coming back before the finals.
What’s next?
It’s always a bit silly to bet against Melbourne. They were a heartbeat away from their fourth consecutive Grand Final in 2019, and the way things are going, they look like gaining redemption for missing out.
PARRAMATTA
3rd. 11 wins 3 losses 22 points
What’s gone right?
The change of clubs has done Reagan Campbell-Gillard the world of good. He is playing better than when he made the rep teams. Mitch Moses has found a new level, and Maika Sivo is as devastating as ever. Michael Jennings is on the cusp of being in the all time top ten for try scorers, and youngsters Dylan Brown and Reed Mahoney improve every week. Clint Gutherson has been inspirational.
What’s gone wrong?
The Eels have hit a bit of a flat patch in recent weeks. Up until the loss to St George-Illawarra they were winning ugly, and banking a valuable two points each week. Perhaps the loss to the Dragons will be the wake up call they need.
What’s next?
Parramatta fans continue to dream of premiership glory for the first time since 1986. However, the flat patch must give Brad Arthur some concerns. They should at least finish in the top four, and have plenty of time to get back to their best.
SYDNEY ROOSTERS
4th. 9 wins 5 losses 18 points
What’s gone right?
Trent Robinson continues to have the Roosters at their professional clinical best. Looking to be the first team since 1983 to win three Grand Finals in a row, the Roosters have the experience and the depth to keep getting the job done most weeks. Brett Morris has turned back the clock, scoring nine tries in ten matches, while Matt Ikavalu has also kept the scoreboard ticking over.
What’s gone wrong?
Injuries to key players has halted momentum. Captain Boyd Cordner and Luke Keary have both had concussion issues, while the loss of Victor Radley is huge. The Roosters can’t afford to lose any more top line players on the eve of the finals.
What’s next?
Most of the injured should be back on deck before the finals. They also have Sonny Bill Williams set to return to the club, eager to add to his 2013 premiership ring. If they can hang on to their spot in the top four, the teams above them will be looking over their shoulders.
CANBERRA
5th. 9 wins 5 losses 18 points
What’s gone right?
George Williams has fit right in at the Raiders. Any worries about losing Aiden Sezer have since been forgotten. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad has parlayed his 2019 form into another great year, and Josh Papalii is back at his rampaging best, and should be the first forward picked for Queensland.
What’s gone wrong?
The drama over the future of John Bateman proved a distraction earlier in the year. Losing Josh Hodgson is a setback which history has shown will be hard to overcome.
What’s next?
Canberra will be pushing for a top four finish in the coming weeks. From there, who would bet against them repeating the 2019 fairytale all the way to the Grand Final?
NEWCASTLE
6th. 8 wins 1 draw 5 losses 17 points
What’s gone right?
No matter what happens from here, rookie coach Adam O’Brien receives a pass mark. He has turned the Knights into a genuine finals contender, though they may still fall short of the top teams. Kurt Mann has finally realised the potential he showed at Melbourne so many years ago. Mitchell Pearce has been free to play his natural game, and Kalyn Ponga is all class. A whole bunch of youngsters headed by Bradman Best should ensure the Knights will only get better.
What’s gone wrong?
Injuries to whoever plays hooker. After losing Jayden Brailey before the COVID-19 shutdown, the Knights signed Andrew McCullough from Brisbane, who looked like being the buy of the year before being ruled out for the rest of the season. Connor Watson also fell to injury, forcing Kurt Mann to move from five-eighth. Fifth string hooker Chris Randall looks a good prospect.
What’s next?
Newcastle need to at least make the top eight for the year to qualify as a success after such a strong start. They seem to be fading at times, but showed they can win fancy (44-4 against the Tigers) and grittily (26-24 against Manly). With a year under the belt of players such as Tex Hoy, Phoenix Crossland, Enari Tuala and Brodie Jones, the Knights can expect to be a real contender in 2021.
CRONULLA
7th. 8 wins 6 losses 16 points
What’s gone right?
Shaun Johnson has found some good form, bagging a heap of try assists. Sione Katoa has gone from Newtown cult-hero to genuine first grade winger in twelve months. Toby Rudolf has been a surprise packet in the forwards, and Jesse Ramien looks comfortable back at the Sharks after a stint with Newcastle. Wade Graham continues to be one of the best players in the league.
What’s gone wrong?
The Sharks struggled for continuity in their backline, due to injuries to Josh Dugan and Matt Moylan. Andrew Fifita has also missed plenty of game time this year.
What’s next?
From here, finals’ destiny is in the Sharks’ own hands. They have a tough run home that includes matches against Penrith, Newcastle, Sydney Roosters, and Canberra; but should qualify for the finals.
SOUTHS
8th. 8 wins 6 losses 16 points
What’s gone right?
The strike power out wide continues to be the Rabbitohs’ greatest strength. Alex Johnson is their leading try scorer, despite being on his way out of Redfern. Dane Gagai keeps racking up the tries giving the Bunnies options on both sides of the field.
What’s gone wrong?
Souths have been inconsistent throughout 2020, and it may end up costing them dearly. Latrell Mitchell has been great at times, but the pressure off the field must be weighing on the young fullback. Damien Cook seems to have been worked out by oppositions, but he remains the best hooker in the competition not named Cameron Smith.
What’s next?
If Souths can beat Manly this weekend, that should wrap up a spot in the top eight. From there, Souths can be anything, such is their potency in attack. I’d love to see Liam Knight really step up over the next six to ten weeks and fulfil his obvious potential.
WESTS TIGERS
9th. 6 wins 8 losses 12 points
What’s gone right?
David Nofoaluma continues to improve with every season. He may be the most under rated winger in the competition, but it wouldn’t surprise if he gained a NSW jumper at the end of the year. Benji Marshall is enjoying his footy again, but the big story has been the form of rookie hooker Harry Grant. On loan from Melbourne, Grant is probably the buy of the year.
What’s gone wrong?
Some chopping and changing in the halves has stifled some of the Tigers’ momentum. Benji Marshall and Luke Brooks is probably the best combination, but Josh Reynolds, and Billy Walters (before his injury) have both had their moments. The team as a whole still seems to be getting used to Michael Maguire’s coaching. 18 months in, that shouldn’t be a factor.
What’s next?
If the Tigers beat Souths and Manly in their run home, they could sneak into the top eight. Unfortunately, they also face Sydney Roosters, Penrith, Melbourne, and Parramatta. I think the Tigers can start looking towards 2021.
MANLY
10th. 6 wins 8 losses 12 points
What’s gone right?
The late signing of Danny Levi has helped offset the loss of Manase Fainu at hooker. Cade Cust has made the most of his opportunities, as has Tevita Funa. Daly Cherry-Evans continues to be a class ahead of most opposition halfbacks. Des Hasler has re-installed the siege mentality that helped Manly a decade ago.
What’s gone wrong?
Injuries to Tom Trbojevic, Dylan Walker, Moses Suli, Addin Fonua-Blake, Martin Taupau, Brendan Elliott, and Brad Parker haven’t helped. All teams have injuries, but Manly’s have been at crucial times, and they just don’t have the depth to cover.
What’s next?
If Manly beat Souths this week, they are back within a win of the top eight. They play three of the bottom five teams in their last three rounds, but also have a clash with arch rivals Melbourne. If they hang in long enough to get some troops back, they may sneak into the top eight; but that’s about as far as they can go this season. A top outside back and a back rower to take some pressure of Jake Trbojevic could make Manly a real contender for the 2021 title.
ST GEORGE-ILLAWARRA
11th. 5 wins 9 losses 10 points
What’s gone right?
For a brief period in 2020, St George-Illawarra had a spine of Matt Dufty, Corey Norman, Adam Clunes and Ben Hunt. Cameron McInnes was lock, Zac Lomax was at centre, and the team looked like they could beat any team in the league on their day. The form of Lomax, Dufty and Clune is the shining light in another disappointing season for the Dragons.
What’s gone wrong?
Circumstances prevented the Dragons from keeping that spine. James Graham returned to England earlier in the season, leaving a big hole in their forward pack. Tyson Frizell seems on his way out, and Jack de Belin’s future remains clouded.
What’s next?
With coach Paul McGregor gone, the Dragons will be looking for a few wins to finish off the season to impress the new coach, whoever that may be. They could do a lot worse than Craig Fitzgibbon, a former Steeler and Dragon that has learned his trade under the tutelage of Trent Robinson.
WARRIORS
12th. 5 wins 9 losses 10 points
What’s gone right?
The spirit in the Warriors’ camp must be at an all-time high when it should be at an all-time low. Forced to camp in Australia during COVID-19, they have seen some players justifiably return home to New Zealand to be with their young families. Yet the Warriors keep turning up week after week, putting in an effort that nobody can deny. They should try to keep Penrith loan player Jack Hetherington, if they can curb his on-field discretions.
What’s gone wrong?
Sacking coach Stephen Kearney shortly after the resumption of the competition was not a good look. In a normal season, it may be understandable; but it threatened to derail the Warriors’ entire campaign. Talk about players defecting to rugby union next season are not helping, no matter how unfounded.
What’s next?
Phil Gould is the absolute right fit for the Warriors in 2021. Gould has a great track record of grassroots input, as the Panthers are seeing now, with many of their youngsters coming from western NSW. When Gould gets hold of the entire country of New Zealand, the Warriors should be challenging for the title sometime in the next five years. Hopefully Nathan Brown gets a chance to lead the way as coach.
GOLD COAST
13th. 4 wins 10 losses 8 points
What’s gone right?
It’s taken most of the year, but new coach Justin Holbrook has Gold Coast fans excited again. Anthony Don remains a cult hero at the Titans, while Jamal Fogarty and Ashley Taylor have formed a stable halves combination. AJ Brimson is back from injury, and looks like he will soon return to his best form.
What’s gone wrong?
It just took too long to get the combinations right this year, but that was to be expected. By now we should be talking about Bryce Cartwright as at least on the verge of NSW and Australian selection, but sadly, he is on the lookout for a new club. Let’s hope he gets a fresh start somewhere in Sydney, and becomes the player we all know he can be.
What’s next?
With no chance of playing the finals this year, Gold Coast are looking positively at 2021. The signings of Herman Ese’Ese, Tino Fa’asuamaleaui and David Fifita will bring some starch to the pack that already has Kevin Proctor, and the improving Moeaki Fotuaika.
NORTH QUEENSLAND
14th. 3 wins 11 losses 6 points
What’s gone right?
Kyle Feldt is one of the most consistent players in the competition. He has scored eleven tries in thirteen games this season. Jason Taumalolo continues to be one of the best forwards in the competition, and young outside back Hamiso “The Hammer” Tabuai-Fidow is shaping up to be one of the most exciting players in the league for years to come.
What’s gone wrong?
The resignation of Cowboys’ only premiership winning coach Paul Green shows that North Queensland is in need for rejuvenation. Valentine Holmes has suffered with injury throughout the season, as has Michael Morgan. The Cowboys have already used 29 players in first grade this year.
What’s next?
Much will depend on who the new coach will be. The smart money is on Todd Payten, who was assistant under Paul Green, and is doing good things at the Warriors as caretaker coach this year. The Cowboys need a couple of key signings to complement their existing squad.
BRISBANE
15th. 3 wins 11 losses 6 points
What’s gone right?
Precious little. Kotoni Staggs has scored seven tries in seven games, and Herbie Farnsworth and Xavier Coates continue to improve in difficult times. Adversity will eventually prove invaluable for players such as Patrick Carrigan and Payne Haas, who are the leaders of the future at the Broncos.
What’s gone wrong?
How much time do you have? Injuries haven’t helped. David Fifita is on his way out, and may be followed by Tevita Pangai. Darius Boyd, in his last season, after years of service, stood down from the leadership group. Coach Anthony Siebold, already under pressure, has been called away due to a family emergency. Anthony Milford has been unable to find his best form. He is hardly alone, but he is the guy on the big bucks. A fabulous player at his best, Milford looks like he needs someone to bring out his best.
What’s next?
Avoiding the wooden spoon. The Broncos would have had their hearts in their mouths as the Bulldogs pushed the Tigers on Sunday. Brisbane would hope to beat Gold Coast and North Queensland to take some pressure off, but also face Sydney Roosters, Penrith and Parramatta before the end of the year.
CANTERBURY
16th. 2 wins 12 losses 4 points
What’s gone right?
As beloved as the 1980 Entertainers team was and is, the Bulldogs’ best teams have been known for their grit. Think the 2004 post Salary Cap/Coffs Harbour scandal; the 1980s Dogs of War under Warren Ryan; the 1974 Grand Final team under Malcolm Clift; even the early years’ title victories with the front row of Burns Porter and Kirkaldy. The 2020 side has certainly shown some grit. They’ve had some shellackings, but never once thrown in the towel.
What’s gone wrong?
The Bulldogs just lack enough experience and/or class players in key positions. Sacking coach Dean Pay mid-season probably wasn’t the wisest decision just as Canterbury are coming out of their salary cap restrictions, but this is where they are.
What’s next?
Canterbury players know they are playing for their futures. If they can somehow avoid the wooden spoon, it may be enough to impress new coach Trent Barrett. Nick Meaney, Jake Averillo and Kerrod Holland should be part of the future. They will need the experience of Josh Jackson, Aiden Tolman, Will Hopoate, Dallin Watene-Zelezniak and Adam Elliott. If they retain their grit, the Bulldogs can turn around their recent history reasonably quickly.