Five rounds. Eleven teams. There are still many scenarios available to the National Rugby League before we get to the finals.
Injuries, suspensions, turnarounds in form and decisions from referees and the bunker could all have an impact on those teams still looking to qualify for the finals. Let’s have a look at those still left in the hunt.
PENRITH (1st, 36 points)
Seemingly cruising to another premiership title in 2022, Penrith have suddenly stumbled upon a nightmare situation. Key playmakers Jarome Luai and Nathan Cleary look like missing the rest of the preliminary rounds due to injury and suspension respectively. Throw in an injury to star centre Stephen Crichton and the Panthers’ attack may come under some scrutiny. Luckily, they have enough points in the bag to at the very least secure a home final, although they do play for contenders in the last five rounds.
Draw: Canberra, Melbourne, Souths, Warriors, North Queensland.
NORTH QUEENSLAND (2nd, 30 points)
The Cowboys have defied the critics since the season began, and now look certain to finish in the top four and secure a home final. Coach Todd Payten has his young stars firing, especially boom forward Jeremiah Nanai who has excelled since tasting Origin. The team is looking cohesive and seems the biggest threat to the Panthers, who they face in the final round.
Draw: Canterbury, Roosters, Warriors, Souths, Penrith
CRONULLA (3rd, 28 points)
Cronulla were the team most likely to significantly improve this season, and they haven’t let their fans down. The acquisition of Nicho Hynes, Cameron McInnes and Dale Finucane has helped the Sharks with much needed finesse and experience.
Cronulla don’t have to play another current top eight team on their way to the finals, which could either give them momentum to go deep, or leave them vulnerable when it’s again time to match it with the other contenders.
Draw: Dragons, Wests Tigers, Manly, Canterbury, Newcastle
MELBOURNE (4th, 26 points)
Many people were expecting to Melbourne to slide out of contention after losing four in a row recently, but a win over struggling Gold Coast leaves the Storm inside the top four.
Melbourne have a tough draw ahead, playing four other contenders over the last five rounds, and will need to be at their best to hang on to their top four position. Injuries have cruelled their season at key points, but the experience of multi-premiership winning coach Craig Bellamy should see the Storm once again challenge for premiership honours.
Draw: Gold Coast, Penrith, Brisbane, Roosters, Parramatta
BRISBANE (5th, 26 points)
Kevin Walters has proved to be the real deal in his second season in charge at the Broncos. Walters has the team he wants, and has nurtured Payne Haas, Patrick Carrigan and Selwyn Cobbo into top line players. The addition of experienced campaigners Adam Reynolds and Kurt Capewell has been a crucial factor, but the Broncos may have to be content with just making the finals.
Brisbane’s draw on the run home includes matches against the Roosters, Melbourne and Parramatta who will all be as desperate as the Broncos to gain enough wins to sneak into the top four.
Draw: Roosters, Newcastle, Melbourne, Parramatta, Dragons
PARRAMATTA (6th, 26 points)
Parramatta’s win over Penrith this weekend may turn out to be crucial. Unless disaster happens with the Eels, the club looks like competing in the finals for the fourth consecutive season.
Unfortunately for Parramatta fans, the Eels have been unable to go on with the job, and this year looks like being more of the same, as their quest to make the top four looks difficult. Apart from facing a desperate Manly, Parramatta will clash against fellow top four aspirants Souths, Brisbane and Melbourne. Destiny is in their own hands.
Draw: Manly, Souths, Canterbury, Brisbane, Melbourne
SOUTH SYDNEY (7th, 24 points)
A mixed start to the season may come back to hurt South Sydney in their quest to make the finals. Last year’s runners-up are clinging to seventh spot and play four current top eight teams over the final five rounds. The golden point loss to Cronulla on Saturday night hasn’t quite ended their top four chances, but they would almost have to win every game to get there.
Draw: Warriors, Parramatta, Penrith, North Queensland, Roosters
SYDNEY ROOSTERS (8th, 22 points)
For the second season in a row, the chances of Sydney Roosters have been decimated by long-term injuries at key points in the season. They have managed to crawl their way into the top eight despite being without key playmaker Luke Keary for extended periods.
The Roosters were fortunate to face Manly on Thursday at a time when the Sea-Eagles were languishing in their self-made crisis. The Bondi based club may not get that lucky again. They will have to be at their best for the rest of the season, and their chances may come down to a last round clash with arch-rivals South Sydney.
Draw: Brisbane, North Queensland, Wests Tigers, Melbourne, Souths
CANBERRA (9th, 22 points)
Just out of the top eight on for and against with five rounds to play, Canberra’s long battle with consistency looks likely to haunt them again.
The luck of the draw sees the Raiders playing four teams below them over the next round weeks. This week’s clash with an under strength Penrith team has the potential to make or break Canberra’s year.
Draw: Penrith, Dragons, Newcastle, Manly, Wests Tigers
MANLY (10th, 20 points)
Some may say that Manly blew up their season with the kerfuffle over the Pride Jersey last week, but in truth, the loss the week before to St George-Illawarra exposed the Sea-Eagles for their seasons’ lack of consistency.
Manly fans have hoped the loss of Tom Trbojevic could be overcome, and the Sea-Eagles have at times shown glimpses of the form that propelled them within a game of the 2021 Grand Final. A loss this week to Parramatta could be the end of any aspirations they have to make the 2022 finals.
Draw: Parramatta, Gold Coast, Cronulla, Canberra, Canterbury
ST GEORGE-ILLAWARRA (11th, 20 points)
The Dragons would have to have everything go their way to make the 2022 finals. They suffer from a detrimental for and against compared to the teams around them, which wasn’t helped by a shambolic second half against the Cowboys at Kogarah this afternoon.
St George-Illawarra have a more favourable draw than some of the other teams looking to sneak into the top eight, but they seem to lack one or two game-breakers to make it happen.
Draw: Cronulla, Canberra, Gold Coast, Wests Tigers, Brisbane